LM portfolio as at 13/02/2026:
| Code | Sector | Date Bought | Cost | Value | Gain/Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LM079 LM079-2 LM079-3 |
Investment Banking and Brokerage Services |
22/02/2024 16/10/2024 03/12/2024 |
£4310 | £5800 | 34.53% |
| LM086 LM086-2 LM086-3 LM086-4 |
Banks | 02/12/2024 10/02/2025 10/09/2025 02/01/2026 |
£6090 | £8040 | 32.12% |
| LM090 LM090-2 LM090-3 |
Aerospace & Defense | 06/01/2025 23/04/2025 10/09/2025 |
£6090 | £8850 | 45.22% |
| LM095 | Travel & Leisure | 01/12/2025 | £1520 | £1600 | 5.37% |
| LM096 | Investment Banking and Brokerage Services |
22/12/2025 | £1520 | £1640 | 8.22% |
| LM097 | Gas, Water and Multi-utilities | 09/02/2026 | £1520 | £1590 | 4.15% |
| LM098 | Chemicals | 09/02/2026 | £1540 | £1590 | 3.42% |
| LM099 | Food Producers | 09/02/2026 | £1530 | £1500 | (2.09%) |
| LM100 | General Industrials | 09/02/2026 | £1660 | £1600 | (3.74%) |
| LM101 | Electronic and Electrical Equipment | 09/02/2026 | £1530 | £1500 | (2.33%) |
If you take a position in a share the day before results are due to be announced, is that investing or just gambling?
Setting aside if you have good, accurate, and very illegal, inside information - most people have no idea whether an announcement of results will be good, bad or indifferent so at best they can only make an educated guess as how it will turn out.
Hence buying a share the day before results come out must surely be classed as gambling? Especially if the share has been on a downtrend for the last few months; you're basically saying that you think (a) the news will be good, (b) the market will be happy with this news and (c) the share price will reverse and start to climb again once the news is out.
Take, for example, RELX plc (REL) who were due to reveal their 2025 results first thing on Thursday morning (12/02/2026).
This share has been TUMBLING... it's been in freefall since October last year, halving in value.
Which would suggest to me that there is something wrong somewhere - either it was vastly overpriced when it reached £42 or "the market" knows something we don't and is selling it off like mad because something is going to come out at some point.
Now I have a shiny new spread-betting account I have been short this share since early January. Coincidentally I opened the sell trade right around the time that Peter of "Twin Petes" fame announced he had bought it.
He announced on his podcast that he had invested in REL - but only after watching it go up for 'weeks and weeks', and as his record is pretty poor with buying shares 'because they are cheap', that was the sign for me that it was likely to fall.
It was very interesting to watch some forum users announcing their plans in the run-up to results day. It turns out that a lot of people were happy to buy REL in advance of the results coming out. Obviously their assumption was that the news would be good and would reverse the very strong downwards trend. (my comments in blue)
6th Feb:
"But the severe drop in share price has meant a nice entry today - bought two lots so far" (it then fell even further)
Day before:
"That's me onboard I have been watching since last year and REL is now silly cheap" (it'll probably get cheaper in the coming weeks)
On results day following what forumites called "good" results there was lots of excitement prior to market open at 8am:
"Oh dear the poor shorts I wonder how they will put a negative spin on these excellent results and outlook of more of the same" (well, I assume that many people in short trades have been in their trade for weeks or months and they aren't likely to be panicking and closing... they will be well in profit so have a large cushion before they start losing any money)
"Complete reversal of SP due" (you hope!)
"Shorts will need closing" (for what reason? Because you are desperate for the price to rise? Hope doesn't make it happen)
The share finished the day up 9.99% and so those who bought either the day before or first thing that morning are currently sitting on a quick gain. No doubt they will be happy with that but longer-term holders might not be as happy considering it remains down 25% so far this year.
There was no way of knowing which way the share would go so I'm going to say that buying the day before was pure gambling, despite some of the forumites showing paper profits this weekend. Monday and the next few weeks will be the real test of how smart of a decision it was.
Friday was one of those days where all my shorts went up and my investments fell. Day to day doesn't really matter as I am always looking to be in positions for the medium to long term.
The shorts are a little different as they work on futures month. An example would be a UK share like Vodafone. Go on IG and you can choose from March, June or September 2026.
My open trades are in the nearest quarterly shares bet timeframe i.e. March 26 so they will expire on the 17th March.
If, at that point, the trade is still open it will "rollover" to the next quarter - June 2026 - which expires on 16/06/2026.
In the process of rolling over the March trade will close, the profit or loss banked, and a new trade opened in the June quarterly bet.
I'll keep you updated on how the spread-betting is going.
There's little to report as it stands... I deposited £500 back in December 2025 and have been making small small trades since then to get a feel for how it all works on the IG platform. When I had a spread-betting account back in the 2000s it was with Finspreads, a company which is long gone. I'm reminding myself of all the benefits and pitfalls and all the emotions that come with having open spread-bets.
Most people probably imagine that the stressful part of trading comes from having a losing position but I remember well being really stressed out when I had several positions open that were in a great deal of profit and not being able to concentrate due to worrying about the market reversing and the money disappearing.
Should the worst happen and my account blows up I'll only lose £500 so I'm not overly concerned about it. Having this account will give me the opportunity to make shorter-term trades or to open SHORT trades - something I can't do easily in a LISA or SIPP. Yes, I could buy inverse ETFs I suppose, I haven't looked into it in any detail... maybe that's something for the future.
The Portfolio
As you can see above, two of the five new trades placed last week are currently in profit.
4 of the 5 were new 52 week highs, some even new ALL-TIME highs so I am confident they are going to do well, seeing as though the overall market is also making new highs frequently at present.
The other new position, LM098, was opened as the share price moved over its 200 day SMA after a long, long decline in price. I'm content with this position, not overly concerned with it. I'll be watching it closely and making sure to dump it if it hits my 7% mental stop loss.
Who knows, it may well be a real turnaround success - much like what our friends on the forum hope REL will be. Stranger things have happened.